📊 GMAT Exam Prep

A company wants to predict sales based on advertising spending using a regression model. They collect data for 10 months and find a strong positive linear relationship. However, they only advertised heavily in months with high seasonal demand. What is the primary limitation of using this model to predict sales for a month with low seasonal demand?

A The sample size (10 months) is too small for a reliable regression.
B The model might suffer from multicollinearity, as advertising is correlated with sales.
C The model is likely biased due to confounding with seasonal demand, making predictions outside the observed conditions unreliable.
D A strong positive linear relationship indicates advertising directly causes high sales.

✓ Correct Answer: Option C

The observed relationship between advertising and sales is confounded by seasonal demand. The model was trained under specific conditions (high advertising during high demand). Applying it to low seasonal demand, where advertising patterns might differ or have a different effect, would be extrapolation outside the data's relevant domain and likely unreliable.

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